What can South Africa learn from the responses to the first two waves?
An analysis of the timing and severity of lockdowns implemented to combat covid-19
As daily covid-19 cases steadily climb and the third wave looms, policymakers are no doubt weighing up their options for the government’s response. The responses to the first two waves differed in both the timing and strictness of the lockdowns imposed, and as a result had different levels of efficacy. Many South Africans will be anxiously waiting for the next ‘family meeting’, and to hear which alert level the country will move to in efforts to contain the spread as the third wave arrives. In the meantime, taking a closer look at the strictness of prior lockdowns and their effectiveness will provide food for the thought.
Researchers at Oxford University’s Blavatnik School of Government have been gathering information on the various policy responses governments have been using to combat the pandemic¹. The data consists of 20 indicators of government responses, which are then aggregated into four common indices: overall government response index; containment and health index; economic support index; and a stringency index. The indices take on a value between 1 and 100, with a higher number indicating more (or stricter) government action in a particular focus area. The containment and health index considers both lockdown restrictions and health policies including testing policy and contact tracing. The stringency index considers the strictness of behaviour-restricting lockdown policies.
South Africa’s covid-19 lockdown regime broadly consists of five alert levels. The country progressed from alert level 5, the strictest lockdown, down to alert level 1 during 2020. However, the onset of the second wave brought the country back up to an adjusted alert level 3 lockdown in late December 2020. The onset of each alert level is indicated in the graph below, which depicts two of the government response indices introduced above as well as the daily covid-19 cases² from the first case in the country through to the end of March 2021. The indices similarly track the progression of the country along alert levels. Alterations to the lockdown regulations which happened during alert levels are captured by the changes in the indices during levels.
The stringency index for South Africa shows that the government’s response to the first wave was quicker and stricter. South Africa’s stringency index reached a value of 88 three months before the peak of the first wave and was at 81 at the time of the first peak. For the second wave, the stringency index only saw a large increase at the time of the second peak, moving from 51 to 68. The faster and stringent response during the first wave can largely be explained by the abundance of caution exercised by many governments at the onset of the pandemic when very little was known about the virus. However, the response to the second wave significantly lagged the rise in cases during the period.
Similarly, the containment and health index suggests that South Africa was more effective at containing the spread of the virus during the first wave. During the first wave, the index was between 77 and 81. The second wave involved a more contagious and deadly variant of the virus. The new variant coupled with a delayed and weaker response likely explains a lot of decline in the containment and health index. During the second wave, the index hovered between 60 and 73.
The third wave may arrive later than the initial estimate of an Easter holiday driven wave, but that means there is still time to mount an early response. The vaccine rollout is far behind the ambitious targets envisioned when the first batch arrived, so the return to some semblance of a hard lockdown is inevitable. However, a lockdown stricter than the adjusted level three implemented for the second wave is unlikely to be palatable for businesses and individuals. Perhaps the best option, the third time around, is not to wait for the peak before implementing strict lockdown measures.
The code I used to conduct the analysis and produce the graphic can be found in my repository here:
[1] Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford.
https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/covid-19-government-response-tracker
[2] An interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real time
